“This Time Dewey Won”
On Thursday morning the headline in the Jerusalem Post proclaimed that the ruling Fatah party had narrowly retained power in the previous day’s elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council. That news was confirmed in the early morning broadcasts of the Voice of Israel on the radio. But, by the eight o’clock morning news the word was out, Fatah was heading for an embarassing defeat and Hamas—the dreaded terrorist organization—was by all indications going to emerge as the majority party in the PLC. By Friday morning the banner headlines were screaming the news “Hamas Wins in Landslide Victory!” In dour prognostication, the self-same Jerusalem Post, which the day before touted a Fatah win announced: “The Palestinian people voted for resistance.” And now the Monday morning quarterbacking begins…
Most everyone predicted a stunning rise in the fortunes of Hamas as a result of these elections. Already the Israeli government had assembled a blue-ribbon commission to assess policy and to devise strategy for dealing with a Palestinian Authority with a prominent Hamas presence; but nobody, I mean nobody (including the Palestinians themselves) expected Hamas to emerge as the dominant party. The results at this time (with 95% of the vote tallied) give Hamas 76 seats in the new PLC, with 43 going to Fatah and 13 to the other parties. In other words, with Fatah refusing to join in coalition with Hamas the Palestinian Authority will now be governed by Hamas. The outsiders are now sitting in the seats of authority and Atafat’s “Old Guard” have been thrown out on their well-tailored behinds. For many, it appears, the inmates are now running the asylum.
This new reality presents enormous challenges for Israel, for the United States, for the EU and for Russia—all those countries who have invested their political and financial capital in the Road Map that has guided (more or less) and formed the mutually agreed upon basis for any and all peace efforts in the last few years. With the rise of the rejectionists of Hamas, all bets are off the table now as they do not acknowledge the road map, they don’t even acknowledge the road. How will much needed humanitarian aid reach the Palestinians without strengthening the hand of Hamas? What, if any, diplomatic communication can take place so long as Hamas continues to call for armed struggle and the destruction of Israel? If the Palestinian territories become a secure base for increased terrorist activities and, worse, a radical Hamas government invites such rogue entities as Hizbullah and Al Qaida to use its territory as a base of operations, how will Israel and the other nations respond? These are troubling, but real concerns.
If a Hamas administration presents challenges for Israel and the sponsors of the road map, it poses even greater challenges to the Palestinian people. How will they—a well-educated, generally secular public cope with a militantly Islamic government? What will happen to the significant number of Palestinian Christians under a Hamas regime? And what of Hamas itself? It has been able to function as an opposition group quite effectively. It has mastered the art of subversion and incitement, how will it adjust to the much more difficult task of establishing order and creative a stable government? Will it remain radically rejectionist or, out of realpolitik and the moderation that can come from the realities of being a ruling power, will Hamas—like Fatah before it—modify itself and its platform and come to recognize Israel and make the compromises necessary to achieve peace. Quite frankly even the leaders of Hamas were surprised (shocked) by their victory. The Post cited Hamas sources as saying that Hamas wanted to be in the opposition.
It’s possible Hamas may reach beyond its own ranks for an independent to serve as PA prime minister. This would enable Israel and the US, the EU, etc. to talk to the PA without speaking directly to Hamas (and vice versa). An independent candidate, Ziyad Abu Amar a possible candidate for foreign minister in a Hamas government was quoted in the Post saying, “Hamas will have to make the adjustment from an opposition and resistance movement to a political movement” which would force Hamas to become more pragmatic “at the expense of ideology,” he said.
Maybe, just maybe, Hamas with its reputation for being uncorrupt and putting the nation above self-interest, might be able to achieve what the oligarchs of Arafat’s Fatah were unable or unwilling to accomplish—the establishment of a democratic Palestinian State alongside Israel. It is far to early to tell. Then again, if the vote for Hamas was just a vote for jihad, then this would not be the first time that the Palestinians have squandered away international good will, peace and the prospects of a Palestinian state. It’s happened time and time again…
Most everyone predicted a stunning rise in the fortunes of Hamas as a result of these elections. Already the Israeli government had assembled a blue-ribbon commission to assess policy and to devise strategy for dealing with a Palestinian Authority with a prominent Hamas presence; but nobody, I mean nobody (including the Palestinians themselves) expected Hamas to emerge as the dominant party. The results at this time (with 95% of the vote tallied) give Hamas 76 seats in the new PLC, with 43 going to Fatah and 13 to the other parties. In other words, with Fatah refusing to join in coalition with Hamas the Palestinian Authority will now be governed by Hamas. The outsiders are now sitting in the seats of authority and Atafat’s “Old Guard” have been thrown out on their well-tailored behinds. For many, it appears, the inmates are now running the asylum.
This new reality presents enormous challenges for Israel, for the United States, for the EU and for Russia—all those countries who have invested their political and financial capital in the Road Map that has guided (more or less) and formed the mutually agreed upon basis for any and all peace efforts in the last few years. With the rise of the rejectionists of Hamas, all bets are off the table now as they do not acknowledge the road map, they don’t even acknowledge the road. How will much needed humanitarian aid reach the Palestinians without strengthening the hand of Hamas? What, if any, diplomatic communication can take place so long as Hamas continues to call for armed struggle and the destruction of Israel? If the Palestinian territories become a secure base for increased terrorist activities and, worse, a radical Hamas government invites such rogue entities as Hizbullah and Al Qaida to use its territory as a base of operations, how will Israel and the other nations respond? These are troubling, but real concerns.
If a Hamas administration presents challenges for Israel and the sponsors of the road map, it poses even greater challenges to the Palestinian people. How will they—a well-educated, generally secular public cope with a militantly Islamic government? What will happen to the significant number of Palestinian Christians under a Hamas regime? And what of Hamas itself? It has been able to function as an opposition group quite effectively. It has mastered the art of subversion and incitement, how will it adjust to the much more difficult task of establishing order and creative a stable government? Will it remain radically rejectionist or, out of realpolitik and the moderation that can come from the realities of being a ruling power, will Hamas—like Fatah before it—modify itself and its platform and come to recognize Israel and make the compromises necessary to achieve peace. Quite frankly even the leaders of Hamas were surprised (shocked) by their victory. The Post cited Hamas sources as saying that Hamas wanted to be in the opposition.
It’s possible Hamas may reach beyond its own ranks for an independent to serve as PA prime minister. This would enable Israel and the US, the EU, etc. to talk to the PA without speaking directly to Hamas (and vice versa). An independent candidate, Ziyad Abu Amar a possible candidate for foreign minister in a Hamas government was quoted in the Post saying, “Hamas will have to make the adjustment from an opposition and resistance movement to a political movement” which would force Hamas to become more pragmatic “at the expense of ideology,” he said.
Maybe, just maybe, Hamas with its reputation for being uncorrupt and putting the nation above self-interest, might be able to achieve what the oligarchs of Arafat’s Fatah were unable or unwilling to accomplish—the establishment of a democratic Palestinian State alongside Israel. It is far to early to tell. Then again, if the vote for Hamas was just a vote for jihad, then this would not be the first time that the Palestinians have squandered away international good will, peace and the prospects of a Palestinian state. It’s happened time and time again…
Remember 1948 when Dewey “defeated” Truman? The Palestinians rejected a state back then, too. Let’s hope that it will be different this time.
Shalom from Jerusalem.
posted by RSJD at 9:18 AM
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