The Elections: Part Two "The Graying of Israel"

Dateline: Jerusalem, March 31, 2006

Last night the final tallies of the election on March 28th came in. Kadimah—to no one’s surprise—led the pack of 31 contending parties with 29 mandates (i.e. 29 seats) in the upcoming 17th Knesset. Surprising was how poorly the Likud fared winning only 12 mandates making it the fourth leading party after Kadimah, Labor (with 20 mandates) and the ultra-orthodox Sephardic Shas party (with 12 mandates).

Because the final count gave the Likud 12 mandates and the right-wing Israel Beiteinu party of Avigdor Lieberman (supported mainly by immigrants from the FSU) 11 mandates, Bibi Netanyahu has narrowly retained his position as the leader of the right-wing bloc of parties in the Knesset. However (and this is a big however), as I write this Netanyahu’s leadership of the Likud—and, indeed his very political survival—is in contention as the second tier if Likud leadership represented by Silvan Shalom (the former Foreign Minister in Sharon’s government) are busy at work planning to unseat Netanyahu and revivify their party. But, Bibi has surprised us before, rising phoenix-like from the ashes of defeat, though many here in and out of Likud hope that he will go back to selling patio furniture in the U.S.

Now, the big and I mean really BIG election surprise was the astounding victory of the Gil or the “Pensioners’” party. Originally written off as just one more fringe party that would never reach the 2% voter threshold for Knesset representation, the party won an incredible 7 mandates in the new Knesset representing 5.9% of all the votes cast! This was achieved as a result of a sizeable (and unpredicted) vote of support from younger—even much younger—segments of the voting public. The Gil party has but one item on its agenda and that is the preservation and enhancement of the rights and benefits of retired people. It has neither foreign nor domestic agendas. Therefore, the Gil party was a logical (though unanticipated) address for disillusioned voters to send their vote of protest and still be counted as; “blank” voting slips are not legitimate. Today’s pundits attribute this protest vote against the other major parties as the key to Gil’s success in the polls. Nonetheless, the party headed by Rafi Eitan, a dear friend and supporter of Ariel Sharon, and represented by six other newly-elected Knesset members who formerly supported either Sharon or Labor, can surely be counted in the center-left bloc that is expected to emerge as the dominant force in the soon-to-be-formed government.

It is the formation of that new government that is the topic of conversation in the media, the cafes and backrooms of the parties who made it into the 17th Knesset. Interestingly, Ehud Olmert (expected to be the candidate designated as the head of the new government by Israeli President Moshe Katzav on Sunday) has been rather quiet. Instead the media machine has been percolating with reports of the other parties—notably Labor, and Shas—jockeying for position and portfolios in the new government. Labor leader Amir Peretz has been busy since results were in Tuesday night meeting with Eli Yishai of Shas and Rafi Eitan of Gil hoping to cobble together a bloc with a common social and economic agenda to win control of at least two of the important “social” ministries: the Finance, the Interior, the Education and the Health ministries. Peretz has said that he is interested neither in the Foreign Ministry nor the Defense Ministry as they are not vehicles through which he can further what is being called the “March Revolution” which clearly put the social agenda at the forefront of voters’ concerns.

In fact, it is fascinating to note that despite the rise of Hamas, the threats from Iran and the intrusion of Al Qaeda into the region, neither the bellicose breast-pounding of Likud nor the call-to-arms of the right-wing parties following the disengagement from Gaza and violence at Amonah could trump the social and economic concerns of the Israeli public. The Thatcheresque reforms to the economy under Netanyahu’s aegis may have made the Israeli economy healthier from a free-market perspective, but were too draconian in the cutting of the social-basket to win the support of the people. Israelis feel more threatened by attacks to their pocketbook than by attacks from Hamas—that, many believe, is the message sent by the electorate at the polls last Tuesday.

So, for now we wait and see. The card game of putting together the new government has just begun—we just hope that it does not result in a house of cards, unstable and easily toppled. Olmert would probably prefer a government coalition comprising Kadimah, Labor, Shas, Gil and, possibly, United Torah Judaism (an Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox party), with Israel Beiteinu added to the soup. This would give Olmert a commanding 85 mandates within his government. In addition, he could certainly count on Meretz to support any further disengagement, thus giving the new prime minister a whopping 91 mandates to back him as he furthers Kamiah’s agenda—and this is without relying for support upon the 9 mandates held by the United Arab Lists, Balad (an Arab party) and Hadash (communists).

If, as Bibi Netanyahu characterized it, this election was a referendum on the course set by Ariel Sharon, then the nation has spoken and Ariel Sharon, resting and unconscious in his Hadassah Hospital bed, has emerged as the real victor in the race to win the hearts and minds (and votes) of the people of Israel. To be sure, and without any doubt, a new era has begun.

Shalom from Jerusalem