Polls Push Pols

Something wonderful arrived in the mail yesterday. Much anticipated, it arrived without fanfare or formality. It was a small card; most unassuming and easy to mistake for a postal notice regarding a missed package delivery. Yet, this little card delivered a powerful message indeed. It was the notice of my registration in the voting rolls and the location of my polling place for the upcoming national elections to be held on March 28th.

It is now official! I am truly an Israeli, qualified to exercise my franchise to vote as a full-fledged citizen of the State of Israel. Now, into the fray of the Byzantine world that is Israeli politics.

I have been following Israeli politics for more than thirty years, but now, as a voter, I cast a different eye upon those parties and candidates that seek to woo the vote that I shall cast in about four weeks time. To be honest, by the standards of the last several elections this has been (at least to date) a rather lackluster election season. Absent are the fire and passion displayed in previous parliamentary contests. Walking the streets you would hardly know that there was an election going on—no one in faction colors standing on the corner passing out propaganda, no poster-hangers competing with one another to make sure their party’s posters are displayed most prominently, no mass rallies. Beginning next Tuesday we are promised a barrage of TV spots and advertisements, but that is about all.

Pundits posit all sorts of reasons for this—from the somber electoral mood following Prime Minister Sharon’s debilitating stroke, to the fact the his Kadima party seems so unassailable in the polls that the best the opposing parties can do is jockey for position in any upcoming coalition. Add to this the fact that there are no singular, standout candidates; just politicians worrying about their political future should their party do poorly at the polls. So we have Bibi Netanyahu and Amir Peretz fighting for their political lives and the National Religious Party and the secular right-wing National Union parties sharing a political bed hoping (against hope) that together they can garner the votes that neither party can hope to accrue on its own. That’s about as exciting as it has gotten. Each party—right, left and center—promising that its platform and its leadership can best counter the victory of Hamas in the recent Palestinian elections.

In keeping with the Kafka-esque political reality of the Middle East, March 28th also marks the deadline for Hamas to form the new Palestinian government. With no clear indication that Hamas will succeed in forming a unity government with the remnants of Fatah, the various Israeli parties are positioning themselves to confront a hostile, intransigent and Iranian-dependent radical regime ruling the Palestinian Authority. Despite the best attempts of the present government and our American allies, it is not likely that Israel will be successful in maintaining a united international front to isolate an unreconstructed Hamas-led government. This poses enormous challenges for all the parties which must convince the electorate that their party will best be able to confront Hamas while capitalizing on the international good-will and political capital won by the Sharon government. Not knowing in advance what the new Palestinian Authority will look like makes for very cautious politicking by the Israeli parties. The only parties that are clear and unambiguous in defining their position towards dealing with the Palestinians are the right-wing parties who reject outright any possibility of a Palestinian state and argue against any territorial compromise.

It is for this reason that this is an important election, perhaps one of the most important elections in Israel’s history. Despite the electioneering which so far has inspired more ennui than enthusiasm the composition and comportment of the next Knesset and the ruling coalition that will emerge as a result of these elections will determine Israel’s security and destiny at a critical moment.

Kadima is touted to be the clear winner in the race with an estimated 36-39 mandates (as of the most recent polls this week). This is a decline from the 44-46 mandates that were expected when the party was formed, but still a comfortable margin over any second-place party, whether that be Labor or Likud. Both of those parties presently are estimated to receive no more than 17 mandates. With 61 mandates required to govern, it is clear that Kadima will have to put together a coalition government incorporating one or more of the smaller parties. The question is, which ones?

There is nothing that would better serve the interests of Kadima and its leader, Ehud Olmert, than to take BOTH Labor and Likud and hang them out to dry outside of the coalition. Weakened so severely, the parties sitting in opposition would undergo a significant internal shake-up effectively neutralizing their efficacy as a counter-force to a Kadima-led government.

Of course, this means that Kadima will have to cobble together a coalition from the remaining parties. Likely candidates are Shas (the ultra-orthodox Sephardic party) with a projected 9-10 mandates and United Torah Judaism (also ultra-orthodox) pegged to win 5-6 mandates. Adding the Russian-based Israel Beiteinu’s 8 mandates would give a Kadima-led coalition as many as 63 votes out of 120 in the Knesset. Not a comfortable margin by any means, but enough to govern.

In exchange for their support both Shas and UTJ will demand control of the government’s religious and social policies and the ministries that implement them. This will effectively turn the complicated issues regarding religion and state over to the ultra-orthodox interests. There will be absolutely no reason for a Kadima-led coalition to address the important religious issues that divide our society today. There will be little if any hope for non-orthodox streams to make any gains in the struggle to achieve their rights.

Moreover, this will be a definitively right-of-center coalition. Foreign policy will be controlled by those who are reluctant to make the concessions and compromises necessary if there is to be any hope of peace now or in the future with the Palestinians. The only chance for a peace agenda to be advanced will be if one or more of the left-of-center parties are brought into the coalition. For this to happen, Labor must position itself to be a viable coalition partner. That means that Labor will have to conduct a campaign based more on promoting its agenda and less on attacking Olmert and Kadima. In addition, Meretz—the center-left party (with its predicted 4-5 mandates), needs to increase its clout by at least 2 mandates if it is to become an attractive alternative to Shas and/or UTJ in a coalition.

Kadima is a diverse party with representatives on both the left and right of the centrist spectrum. It has enough of a rightward inclination to balance forces pushing from coalition partners on the left. Thus with a coalition including Kadima, Labor and Meretz (and, perhaps Israel Beiteinu to give more balance from the right) the momentum for disengagement will continue in a cautious and measured manner. Also, such as coalition will be prepared—should the unlikely possibility arise—to respond to significant overtures from the Palestinians to resume negotiations towards a permanent solution.

And finally—though by no means less significantly—such a coalition would be the best government to deal with Israel’s troubling social and economic problems. Today more than 1/3 of Israel’s children live below the poverty line. The gap between rich and poor (once the smallest in the developed world) is enormous and the economic policies cast by Netanyahu when he was Finance Minister have exacerbated these problems. There needs to be a coalition with a strong, effective social and economic agenda. I believe that the coalition of Kadima-Labor-Meretz-Israel Beiteinu can achieve this.

For now, Kadima is far ahead and a Kadima-Labor-Meretz-Israel Beiteinu coalition is most unlikely but, with four weeks left to go in the campaign, things could change. That is part of the excitement of Israeli politics—the polls can change daily and the only percentages that really count are those that emerge on March 28th.

My little white card is pinned on the bulletin board before me now. It doesn’t look like much; it is quite unassuming but, what incredible power it possesses.

Shalom from Jerusalem