Connecting the Dots
July 23, 2006
To date I have tried to keep my reflections on the war in the north confined to the events as they unfold in Lebanon and Israel. In the course of the observations I have noted the obvious connections between Hezbollah’s wanton aggression against Israel and the geopolitical machinations of Iran and Syria. It is patently clear to everyone that Hezbollah is the surrogate of Iran and Syria. But, why would Teheran and Damascus unleash Hezbollah at this particular point in time?
It has been widely speculated that Iran fomented this crisis in order to divert the world’s attention from its continued defiance against calls to curb its nuclear program. It certainly smacks of being more than coincidence when the chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani stopped off in Damascus on his way home from inconclusive talks with the negotiators from the EU. Almost immediately after this meeting Hezbollah abducted the two soldiers (killing eight others it should be remembered), setting off the present crisis. And, sure enough, when the G-8 meeting of world leaders took place the war in Lebanon had replaced the Iran nuclear issue at the top of the agenda.
But there’s more…
We hear so much criticism of Israel’s “disproportionate” response to Hezbollah’s aggression. The media reports from almost every quarter in the world that politicians and diplomats are bemoaning the tragic loss of life and the destruction of vital infrastructures in Lebanon. Yes, the world cries out and criticizes Israel freely and yet there has been no serious attempt by the United States or the EU to pressure Israel into a cease-fire. Why not?
This is where I may be pushing the envelope of reason, but here goes…
Perhaps there is more going on here than meets the eye. Obviously, the negotiations with Iran are going nowhere fast. Iran has no intention of curtailing its nuclear program and is doing everything it can to develop a nuclear bomb. Is there anyone left in the civilized world that doubts this? Also, it is not likely that the EU, the United States, Russia and China will come to an agreement to impose real and effective sanctions against Iran to force it to discontinue its nuclear program. And, without the agreement of those countries there is no way that the Security Council will take any significant action.
So, where does that leave us?
If there is little chance of sanctions being effective against Iran, the only other option that seems to be available is the military option. Someone (in truth either the United States or Israel) will have to strike out militarily against key installations in the Iranian nuclear program in order to stop the clock on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. And what is preventing the United States and/or Israel from doing just that? Hezbollah.
Perched on Israel’s border, Hezbollah has amassed a military capability that we are only just beginning to understand. After days and days of relentless bombing, much of Hezbollah’s might (some say as much as 80-90%) is still in tact. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah continues to boast that Hezbollah still has many “surprises” for Israel. Surprises? What surprises?
It would not surprise me at all that Iran has supplied Hezbollah with even longer range rockets than have been used up to now. Rockets that might even be capable of delivering more deadly payloads. It would be safe to assume that these weapons IF THEY EXIST (after all, this would not be the first time that the Iranians have been bluffing) are in the control of the Iranians themselves. Even they would not trust their minions in Hezbollah with such weapons. This might well be Iran’s ace in the hole as a deterrent to any US or Israeli actions against their nuclear infrastructure.
But maybe Iran miscalculated this time. If Israel succeeds in neutralizing Hezbollah’s military threat then Hezbollah’s effectiveness as a threatening shield against attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be nullified. This could be accomplished either directly as a result of the present conflict or by the international community working to push Hezbollah back from the confrontation lines by bringing the Lebanese army or international troops or a combination of the two into the area above Israel’s northern border, putting Israel beyond the reach of Hezbollah’s rockets.
Could it be that the international community, well aware of these realities, is sitting on the sidelines criticizing Israel but taking little other action to stop Israel from significantly weakening Hezbollah precisely because it wants Israel to prevail? If so, it could well be that sometime this year we might see firmer actions, either economic or military, taken against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This could well be the beginning of the end of Iran’s nuclear threat to the world.
Please realize that this may be no more than idle speculation—something to do while incessantly watching the news on TV. But still, it makes you stop and think, doesn’t it?
To date I have tried to keep my reflections on the war in the north confined to the events as they unfold in Lebanon and Israel. In the course of the observations I have noted the obvious connections between Hezbollah’s wanton aggression against Israel and the geopolitical machinations of Iran and Syria. It is patently clear to everyone that Hezbollah is the surrogate of Iran and Syria. But, why would Teheran and Damascus unleash Hezbollah at this particular point in time?
It has been widely speculated that Iran fomented this crisis in order to divert the world’s attention from its continued defiance against calls to curb its nuclear program. It certainly smacks of being more than coincidence when the chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani stopped off in Damascus on his way home from inconclusive talks with the negotiators from the EU. Almost immediately after this meeting Hezbollah abducted the two soldiers (killing eight others it should be remembered), setting off the present crisis. And, sure enough, when the G-8 meeting of world leaders took place the war in Lebanon had replaced the Iran nuclear issue at the top of the agenda.
But there’s more…
We hear so much criticism of Israel’s “disproportionate” response to Hezbollah’s aggression. The media reports from almost every quarter in the world that politicians and diplomats are bemoaning the tragic loss of life and the destruction of vital infrastructures in Lebanon. Yes, the world cries out and criticizes Israel freely and yet there has been no serious attempt by the United States or the EU to pressure Israel into a cease-fire. Why not?
This is where I may be pushing the envelope of reason, but here goes…
Perhaps there is more going on here than meets the eye. Obviously, the negotiations with Iran are going nowhere fast. Iran has no intention of curtailing its nuclear program and is doing everything it can to develop a nuclear bomb. Is there anyone left in the civilized world that doubts this? Also, it is not likely that the EU, the United States, Russia and China will come to an agreement to impose real and effective sanctions against Iran to force it to discontinue its nuclear program. And, without the agreement of those countries there is no way that the Security Council will take any significant action.
So, where does that leave us?
If there is little chance of sanctions being effective against Iran, the only other option that seems to be available is the military option. Someone (in truth either the United States or Israel) will have to strike out militarily against key installations in the Iranian nuclear program in order to stop the clock on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. And what is preventing the United States and/or Israel from doing just that? Hezbollah.
Perched on Israel’s border, Hezbollah has amassed a military capability that we are only just beginning to understand. After days and days of relentless bombing, much of Hezbollah’s might (some say as much as 80-90%) is still in tact. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah continues to boast that Hezbollah still has many “surprises” for Israel. Surprises? What surprises?
It would not surprise me at all that Iran has supplied Hezbollah with even longer range rockets than have been used up to now. Rockets that might even be capable of delivering more deadly payloads. It would be safe to assume that these weapons IF THEY EXIST (after all, this would not be the first time that the Iranians have been bluffing) are in the control of the Iranians themselves. Even they would not trust their minions in Hezbollah with such weapons. This might well be Iran’s ace in the hole as a deterrent to any US or Israeli actions against their nuclear infrastructure.
But maybe Iran miscalculated this time. If Israel succeeds in neutralizing Hezbollah’s military threat then Hezbollah’s effectiveness as a threatening shield against attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be nullified. This could be accomplished either directly as a result of the present conflict or by the international community working to push Hezbollah back from the confrontation lines by bringing the Lebanese army or international troops or a combination of the two into the area above Israel’s northern border, putting Israel beyond the reach of Hezbollah’s rockets.
Could it be that the international community, well aware of these realities, is sitting on the sidelines criticizing Israel but taking little other action to stop Israel from significantly weakening Hezbollah precisely because it wants Israel to prevail? If so, it could well be that sometime this year we might see firmer actions, either economic or military, taken against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This could well be the beginning of the end of Iran’s nuclear threat to the world.
Please realize that this may be no more than idle speculation—something to do while incessantly watching the news on TV. But still, it makes you stop and think, doesn’t it?
Shalom from Jerusalem.
posted by RSJD at 10:16 AM
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