Thursday, August 10, 2006

War in Real Time

Tuesday morning, July 18, 2006

Just about every day since we’ve gotten home I have been up at 5:00 AM and at the computer reading the latest updates on the war in the north from the Jerusalem Post, Ha’Aretz, and Y-Net. This is in addition to the constant drone of the news coming from the TV, ever-present in the background. Even here in Jerusalem (and elsewhere south of Tel Aviv and away from Gaza) where you would hardly know that this crisis is unfolding, the wars now being waged with Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in Gaza are a kind of leit motif to daily life. Everyone is affected because Israel is a small country and there are only about two degrees of separation between people here.

And so we wait, we watch and we listen. I try to get work done between stints in front of the TV switching between the Israeli Hebrew news, CNN, SKY News, BBC News, and Fox News, with an occasional foray to Al Jazeera (to watch the pictures of what they are broadcasting as I cannot understand Arabic—yet). Every source of information is valuable. Despite military censors who justifiably forbid real-time broadcasting of rocket attacks (lest Hezbollah have an on-site source to help them direct their salvos), there has been at least one instance yesterday when a rocket hit in Haifa as the Israeli reporter on-the-scene was broadcasting. We saw the rocket hit at the very moment of impact and saw the smoke billowing from the residential building that was struck. This is really “war in real time.”

The morale in Israel is high, by no means buoyant, but resolute and united. For the general public, whatever we can put our hands to do to help out, we do. As I write these words, Wendy is at the IRAC (Israel Religious Action Center) office volunteering on a project to put together guidelines for Reform congregations (and others) on the frontlines to see to the needs of their congregants during this crisis. With whom to be in touch, what needs must be met, how local congregations can rally in support—all these concerns are being addressed as the whole country galvanizes and mobilizes to meet this challenge.

We are also seeing to the needs of the many tourists—especially youth groups—who find themselves in the country during this difficult time. Very few have cut their visits short to leave the country. Travel plans have changed to keep groups in the safety of the southern part of the country, but the groups are staying. I just spoke to Melinda Weiss, one of our Temple Beth Sholom kids—three of whom are here with the Orange County TIES summer trip—who spoke with enthusiasm about being here, even now. They are precious treasures and are being protected as such, but they are also goodwill ambassadors from abroad whose support and solidarity is enormously appreciated. They are learning first-hand the meaning of the saying, “All Jews are dependent [literally “mixed up” with] each other.” Ours is a shared destiny and when a Jew in Haifa is wounded, a Jew in Orange County, California feels pain.

And so events unfold. So far, there has been no significant commitment of Israeli ground troops in Lebanon. The air strikes and artillery barrages by the IDF appear to have had a significant impact upon Hezbollah’s military capabilities. The rockets and Katyushas are still coming, but there are clear indications that the Israeli military response is taking its toll. Daily sorties over Dahiya, the Beirut suburb controlled by Hezbollah and where Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah (the leader of Hezbollah) is holed up in an underground bunker, are having their effect. The last video communication from Nasrallah, though bellicose and threatening, betrays the increasingly desperate situation of Hezbollah and its leadership.

Signifanctly, the media here reports that Hezbollah (and Hamas) have not succeeded in rallying Arab governments to their cause. On the contrary, voices of criticism are being raised in the Arab world. As cited in today’s Jerusalem Post, Tarek Hamo, a prominent Arab commentator, has mockingly drawn parallels between Nasrallah’s rantings and those of Saddam Hussein prior to the Iraq war. “Nasrallah is now in hiding and his fate won’t be better than that of Saddam, whose hiding was in a deep hole,” he stated. Lebanese Christian Joseph Bishara is quoted as saying, “How can we ask Israel to have mercy on Lebanon while Hizbollah [sic] is betraying Lebanon day and night.” This comment appeared on a Saudi Arabian new site. Only Iran, Syria and the Palestinians have come out clearly and strongly in support of Hezbollah.

And, as for Iran, today’s media report that Iran has raised the possibility of a cease-fire and prisoner exchange to resolve the conflict. This is a departure from Teheran’s usual jingoistic rhetoric. Iran obviously realizes that there has been a tactical blunder at best—or worse, a major strategic setback as a result of the Hezbollah misadventure. It seems possible that Iran is trying to salvage what it can from this military fiasco and its miscalculations regarding Israel’s response to Hezbollah aggression.

This is not to suggest that the conflict is anywhere near a resolution. Hezbollah still maintains considerable military strength including (it is believed) mid-range missiles able to reach Tel Aviv and powerful anti-tank weapons capable of slowing down a major ground offensive. The Hezbollah leadership is still mainly intact and it continues to receive logistical and financial support from Iran and Syria. It may be weakened but by no means eliminated as a threat to Israel and the region.

In the next few days UN representatives will be attempting to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is reported to be planning a trip here by the end of the week. These developments may well portend that the international community will begin to apply pressure upon Israel to diminish or curtail its military response to Hezbollah’s aggression. The window for action may be closing and so the hours and days to come will determine whether or not Hezbollah can be weakened enough to allow for negotiations to be effective and for any kind of real ceasefire to be established, restoring quite and security to Israel.

As Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in his speech to the Knesset yesterday, Israel is entitled to nothing less than “everything that everyone in the enlightened world takes for granted and never imagined that they would have to fight for—the right to a normal life. It is a difficult battle.”

Shalom from Jerusalem

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